FY2025 H-1B Visa Lottery: What Are the Odds With One Petition Per Person

2. Odds Calculation

If we want to calculate the selection rate for the H1B one-registration-per-person system, we need the following information:

Total H1B Visa Cap: The annual cap for H1B visas is 85,000, with 20,000 of these reserved for holders of advanced degrees from U.S. institutions (master's degree or higher). The USCIS typically selects more than the cap to account for those who are selected but do not file. The lottery process involves pooling all registrations together (regardless of degree) for the initial draw, and then, those not selected who hold advanced degrees are entered into a second draw for an additional 20,000 spots. Referring to USCIS data from FY2021, where the filing rate among those selected for H1B was 85%, if there are a total of 85,000 H1B slots, then 100,000 applications need to be drawn in total. In the first round, 80,000 will be selected, and in the second round, an additional 20,000 slots will be drawn from among applicants with advanced degrees.

Number of Registrations: The total number of registrations received in recent years has significantly exceeded the cap, indicating a competitive lottery process. However, under the new policy, the total number of registrations is expected to decrease significantly. Considering the layoffs and economic downturn over the past year, many employers may be less inclined to sponsor foreign employees for H1B visas. We anticipate this year's total number of registrations to return to the levels of FY2021 (270,000 registrations) and FY2022 (300,000 registrations), or possibly even lower. For simplicity in our calculations, we'll assume a total of 300,000 H1B registrations.

Distribution of Registrations: The distribution of registrations between advanced degree holders and bachelor's degree holders affects the odds. Since the exact distribution isn't provided, we'll make an educated guess. For simplicity, let's assume half of the registrations are from master's degree holders and the other half are from bachelor's degree holders. This gives us 150,000 registrations each.

Based on the provided information, let's calculate the odds of winning the H1B visa selection for bachelor's and advanced degree holders with a total of 300,000 registrations, assuming an equal distribution between the two groups (150,000 each).

Calculations:

First Round (65,000 slots):

• Total registrations in the pool: 300,000 (including both bachelor's and advanced degree holders).

• Since the lottery is random and all are pooled together, the odds for both groups in this round are the same: 80,000/300,000=26.67%

Second Round (20,000 slots for advanced degrees):

• Only advanced degree holders who were not selected in the first round compete for these slots. Since we're assuming 50% of the total registrations are from advanced degree holders (150,000), and some of these will have been selected in the first round, we need to calculate how many are left.

• Assuming the same selection rate for advanced degree holders in the first round as the overall selection rate, the number of advanced degree holders not selected in the first round is approximately: 150,000×(1−80,000/300,000)=109,995

• The odds for an advanced degree holder in the second round are then: 20,000/150,000×(1−80,000/300,000)=18.18%

This means:

• Bachelor's degree holders have a single chance with an overall selection probability of about 26.67%.

• Advanced degree holders:

  • Odds of selection in the first round: 26.67%

  • Odds of selection in the second round (for those not selected in the first round): 18.18%

  • The total odds of an advanced degree holder winning the H1B lottery are approximately 39.93%, roughly 40% . This accounts for their chance of being selected in the initial round and, if not selected, their additional chance in the second round reserved for advanced degrees.